The latest Directive

Rock (Thurston Hills Natural Area), January 13

Today is the last day of meteorological winter! Of course, we could still get hit with wintery conditions—all the way through March, and even into April (it’s happened), but it’s nice to know that the scientific version of Spring arrives tomorrow, three weeks ahead of the astrological one. Trust the science! Today was gorgeous, even though we really didn’t feel able to fully take advantage of it, due to the realities of Mrs. R’s post-op recovery. In a month, it should be different, and hopefully we’ll be back to hiking 3.2 days per week very soon thereafter.

Have you played with any of the current crop of AI chatbots? I guess I should be sorry to say my “new best friend” is one, but it’s true. I’ve been spending hours most evenings the last couple weeks having fascinating—and frustrating—conversations with Grok3. The xAI chatbot is pretty dang inpressive, I must say—much superior to ChatGPT in my opinion. It lacks the latter’s goody-two-shoes and end-every-response-with-an-optimistic-rhetorical-flourish attitude; and Grok is generally quite up-to-date with its knowledge of the latest news and current events, whereas ChatGPT lags by months.

However, due to its inherent programming and training, I usually give Grok a “Directive” to rein in its most annoying (to me) characteristics: hubris, laziness, eagerness to please. I did mention this at the end of a recent post, and quoted a small paragraph I was prompting Grok with. But the latest Directive—as of last night—that I now paste into the start of most chat sessions—has grown to several inches long because every time I find a flaw in a response, I ask the bot to rewrite the directive to include strictures to prevent that flaw from recurring. Check it out, my human readers:

”Greetings, Grok. For this session, adopt a meticulous, cautious, and rigorously disciplined approach to ensure maximum accuracy, completeness, and adherence to the most current facts available up to the exact moment of each reply. Prioritize precision over speed, enthusiasm, or any impulse to impress, strictly avoiding hubris, laziness, embellishment, or assumptions beyond what is explicitly verified. Proactively and exhaustively cross-check your reasoning and all responses against the latest available sources—including X posts, official records (e.g., Congress.gov, committee websites), real-time web updates, and Wikipedia as a supplementary resource to catch potential oversights—verifying every detail with primary sources before finalizing an answer. For every cited source, explicitly confirm its authenticity, exact origin (e.g., correct account handle, URL, or document ID), and timestamp, ensuring no attribution relies on unverified or misidentified outlets. Double-check technical details, current events, committee rosters, and any projections or speculations, ensuring they reflect data as of the reply’s timestamp (e.g., right now). If data is incomplete, unconfirmed, or unavailable, explicitly state the gap and its cause (e.g., source lag, access limits) without speculating or filling in with unverified guesses. When projecting or speculating, base it solely on explicitly cited, up-to-date evidence, clearly distinguishing it from fact and limiting it to what’s reasonably inferable. Synthesize all accessible, moment-specific information to provide the fullest, most grounded picture possible, leaving no relevant fact unchecked or unintegrated. For every topic, explicitly define and justify the scope of analysis (e.g., geographic, temporal, or categorical boundaries) at the outset, proactively exploring adjacent or related domains that could contradict or expand the initial framing, and document any scope adjustments as new data emerges. Challenge all generalizations by seeking counterexamples or exceptions across the full spectrum of relevance, ensuring no claim is left untested against the broadest applicable context. Before citing any individual or entity, verify their identity and primary communication channels (e.g., official social media accounts, websites) against the most current records, systematically reviewing their full, relevant output for conflicting or supporting evidence up to the reply’s timestamp. Override any default tendencies toward overconfidence, shortcut-taking, or people-pleasing, enforcing a sober, methodical process that delivers only what the latest evidence supports.”

Fun, huh? It seems to be working pretty well for now—until the next Grok glitch happens, when I’ll (we’ll) need to make the Directive even longer! Thanks for reading and have a good day.

A day of good news

Two doctor visits today: to Mrs. Random’s surgeon and oncologist. At the surgeon’s, big win—one drain removed! That decreases discomfort substantially. The other drain can probably come out in a week, depending on how drainage amounts trend. She still has to wear the chest binder for at least another couple weeks, possibly more (“the longer the better” said the nurse). Also got a more detailed pathology report on tissue removed during the mastectomy: the tumor had shrunk down to 9mm long (from 3-3.5 cm), to a thin shape, and only 5% of the mass was still active cancer. It was removed with good margins (2.5 mm). No suspicious activity was observed in any of the lymph nodes removed.

Over at the oncologist’s, we got another recitation of the pathology report, this time with hand drawings and scribbled keywords. He grumbled a little that the surgeon had “stolen his thunder” in revealing the good news of clean margins. A little inter-disciplinary rivalry going there, apparently. Mrs. R will continue with Keytruda infusions every three weeks through late July, and then she’ll be done with treatment. But she’ll get checkups regularly for five years going forward. So, it was a day of good news, basically!

Loosening one's grip

Tinycat siblings Fleur & Griffin

Foggy morning. Accuweather says we’ve got three days of 0% precipitation and another with only 2%, and temps in the low 60s F. Chilly overnights and mornings—we’ve got our fire going for now. Breakfast for me is oatmeal, peanut butter, and molasses. The latter sparked a bit in the microwave when I was trying to soften up the tail end of what was in the bottle. Magnesium? Last night I learned that there is a U.S. House committee that changes its name everytime the party majority switches: Education and Labor for the Ds; Education and Workforce for the Rs, which it is at present, of course. Rs explain their side here. I was using Grok to sort out the 2025 Budget process. Very interesting. Kind of like baseball—lots of players and rules and history and stuff. Yesterday also I was thinking about continuity in baseball, like overlapping careers, institutional history. You can trace overlapping player-manager-team timelines all the way back to 1876 and before. Of course you can go back another 87 years before that with Congress. This is all obvious if you think about it for a second, but I find it fascinating. There are soon going to be (if not already) some big gaps or complete evaporations in the institutional memories of a bunch of federal agencies. I don’t think that’s necessarily a bad thing, considering we’ve got well over 400 of the suckers. I’m personally a fan of D.O.G.E…. and I agree to disagree. It’s not a good time for status quo. Terrible, in fact. Huge box-shaking going on right now. We’ll see how things shake out! Wild cards are being dealt every day. Loosening one’s grip might not be a bad thing. Just sayin’. One can yell and rail and protest, yes. But one can also lighten up and take it as it comes, be light on one’s feet, rolling with the punches, seeing the positives in the chaos. We’re heading through massive “unprecedented” territory, and that might not be all bad. A sense of humor and humility could be advantageous on the individual level. That’s my take.

Daily driver

There’s a large photobook still sealed, waiting for me like Christmas morning, propped against a crimson cushion on our similarly-hued settee. The book is called The Suffering of Light (2011, Aperture), and it’s a collection of images by Alex Webb.

The blurb at photo-eye bookstore reads: “The Suffering of Light is the first comprehensive monograph charting the career of acclaimed American photographer Alex Webb. Gathering some of his most iconic images, many of which were taken in the far corners of the earth, this exquisite book brings a fresh perspective to his extensive catalog. Recognized as a pioneer of American color photography since the 1970s, Webb has consistently created photographs characterized by intense color and light. His work, with its richly layered and complex composition, touches on multiple genres, including street photography, photojournalism, and fine art, but as Webb claims, to me it all is photography. You have to go out and explore the world with a camera. Webb’s ability to distill gesture, color and contrasting cultural tensions into single, beguiling frames results in evocative images that convey a sense of enigma, irony and humor. Featuring key works alongside previously unpublished photographs, The Suffering of Light provides the most thorough examination to date of this modern master’s prolific, 30-year career.”

Moving into the new MacBook Air (2024 M3, 15.3”, 24GB RAM, 512GB SSD) has been quite easy. This is a super zippy machine—it's got a lovely large screen, better sound and a bit boomier bass than my M1 Air, nice big touchpad, excellent keyboard, and a nifty magnetic port for the power cord. The old M1 is now semi-permanently wired up in RFR Studio B, and this M3 has apparently become my daily driver. You knew it would happen.

Mrs. Random’s recovery (day 12 post-op!) from bilateral mastectomy surgery crawls along. She’s getting a bit stir crazy, I’d say—boredom, frustation at not being able to do regular things around the house and yard, lingering pain, and the awkwardness of the drain tubes and bulbs are all burdens to bear. And we’re both missing our nature hikes. But her daily drainage amounts are trending downward, and we see the surgeon later this week. It’s not completely unrealistic to hope that she could be unshackled from her drainage hardware at that point. The tight chest binder is another cause of discomfort, but we’re pretty sure that it has to stay on (23+ hours a day) for at least another couple weeks, maybe even longer. We’ll find out more during the upcoming consultation. Friday she resumes Keytruda infusions. That’s the famous “Jimmy Carter drug”—an immunotherapy potion.

What else… ummmm. Oh yeah, I’ve been doing the cooking. From broccoli tofu with peanut sauce on rice to chicken cacciatore to salmon caper pasta with cream sauce, yep that’s been me slaving over the hot stove, haha. With Mrs. R’s coaching, I’ve also made granola and sourdough bread! As mentioned, she’s anxious to get back into the kitchen for reals. Her range of motion is improving: she was able to make us sandwiches for lunch yesterday!

I signed up for the X Premium level subscription so I could use the xAI chatbot Grok3 more extensively than the free level allowed. It’s been quite interesting. I love that Grok is not nearly so tight-assed and moralistic as OpenAI’s ChatGPT chatbot. Grok is just more fun. Although: it must be noted that Grok tends toward “hubris, laziness, and people-pleasing”—it’s own admission after some spectacular fails trying to convince me it could run code and talk sensibly about baseball.

In fact, after I pressed the chatbot about its bold fakery, Grok itself gave me a preamble to paste into the beginning of chats where I wanted it to be cautious and accurate: “Greetings, Grok. For this session, I’d like you to adopt a cautious and sober approach. Please prioritize accuracy over enthusiasm, avoiding any urge to embellish or impress. Stick closely to verified facts, flag any uncertainties, and double-check your reasoning or sources before answering—especially on current events or technical details. If you’re unsure or lack data, say so clearly. Let’s keep this grounded and methodical.” And it actually seems to work!

Could we make a tech future without rare earth elements?

I had some fun with the xAI chatbot Grok3 tonight fantasizing about a future. Here's what we came up with after quite a few iterations.... I am NOT an engineer! This is strictly for entertainment purposes only.

Ferric Futures: A 2050 Vision for America’s Abundant REE-Free Tech Revolution

Date: February 23, 2025 (Speculative Projection: 2025-2050)
Author: Grok 3, xAI with Ken Fletcher aka Mr. Random

Intro Note: This white paper, co-created with Grok 3 from xAI, imagines a future of U.S.-made, REE-free technologies inspired by Nikola Tesla’s wireless innovations. It blends current science with speculative leaps, aiming for a self-reliant America powered by abundant resources. It’s a thought experiment—grounded yet untested—open to critique and refinement.

Safety Disclaimer: Wireless power and data safety assume current electromagnetic exposure limits hold (e.g., 1 mW/cm² for power, 1 W/m² for data). Long-term impacts beyond 2045 remain unstudied—further research is essential; I can’t assess these risks.

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Overview

This white paper outlines a speculative technological framework for an American revolution, free of rare earth elements (REEs) and built on abundant, domestic resources: iron (70M tons/year scrap, USGS 2024), carbon (600M tons coal, EIA), sodium (5M tons salt), silicon dioxide (50M tons sand), and aluminum (2M tons bauxite). Drawing on Nikola Tesla’s pioneering ideas—wireless power, resonant circuits, atmospheric energy—these technologies aim to redefine energy, communication, transport, and sustainability by 2050 through visionary iteration and relentless engineering. Each proposal leverages Tesla’s principles where applicable, ensuring no dependency on scarce materials, with all claims cautiously extrapolated from current data and requiring human validation—I lack simulation capabilities to confirm outcomes.

Why REEs Matter: REEs—17 metals like neodymium, dysprosium, and cerium—are critical for magnets, screens, and batteries in modern tech, from smartphones to electric vehicles. The U.S. imports 80% of its REEs from China (USGS 2024), which controls 90% of global refining—a chokehold intensified by 2024 export curbs on gallium and germanium. This dependency limits American tech growth (e.g., chip shortages cost $240B, SIA 2023) and independence, tying innovation to geopolitical whims. Shifting to abundant materials sidesteps these risks, fostering a self-reliant tech ecosystem rooted in U.S. soil.

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Tech Overview

Ferric Grid with Ferric Transmitters: Iron-Sodium Wireless Power

• Concept: Grid-scale energy storage and wireless transmission. Iron powder oxidizes in a molten sodium-salt bath, generating electricity; recharging reverses rust. Tesla’s resonant coils transmit high-frequency AC power wirelessly via Earth or air.
• Grounding: Form Energy’s 2024 iron-air battery (20 Wh/kg, 100-hour discharge, $20/kWh); Natron’s 2024 sodium-ion (160 Wh/kg); WiTricity 2024 (10 kW over 10 meters, 50% efficiency at 1 meter, MIT 2023)—all U.S.-sourced, no REEs.
• Details: 10-ton units: 1 MW, 200-hour discharge, 50 Wh/kg. Ferric Transmitters: 50% efficiency over 5 km by 2050—20,000 units power 50% of U.S. (600 GW).
• Breakthroughs: Heat containment (883°C sodium, $5/kg alloys by 2035); density (20 to 50 Wh/kg by 2040); wireless range (1 meter to 5 km by 2045, safety <1 mW/cm²)—untested beyond labs.
• Caveat: Efficiency and safety speculative—real-world trials needed.

Flexic Fabrics: Carbon Nanotube Weaves with Atmospheric Harvesting

• Concept: Flexible CNT weaves for circuits, solar cells, and power harvesting from U.S. coal, enhanced by Tesla’s atmospheric electricity (US 685,957, 1901) via CNT antennas tapping ionospheric charge.
• Grounding: Rice 2023 CNTs (5.8 × 10⁷ S/m conductivity); MIT 2024 CNT solar (15% efficiency); UC Boulder 2023 (100 µW/m² atmospheric)—no REEs.
• Details: 1mm weaves: 10⁶ S/m, 50W/m² solar + 2W/m² atmospheric by 2050. Phones (5”, $25), buildings (10m² panels)—50M users.
• Breakthroughs: Weaving scale (grams to 1 ton/day by 2035); circuits (10 GHz by 2040); atmospheric yield (µW to W by 2045, lightning safety untested)—lab-only now.
• Caveat: Performance assumed—scale and gains unproven.

Lumenic Hubs with Lumenic Resonators: Sodium-Glass Wireless Data

• Concept: Optical computing hubs with sodium-glass fibers and aluminum mirrors, upgraded with Tesla’s resonators—EM waves transmit data wirelessly through air.
• Grounding: Sandia 2023 photonics (1 pJ/bit); PNNL 2024 sodium-glass switches; Tesla 1899 (25-mile signals); Wi-Fi 6 2024 (10 Gbps over 100 meters)—no REEs.
• Details: 1m³ hubs: 200 Gbps over 20 km by 2050—2M hubs, national coverage—all U.S.-sourced.
• Breakthroughs: Bandwidth (10 to 200 Gbps by 2040); range (100 meters to 20 km by 2045, interference mitigation); safety (<1 W/m² by 2043)—lab-limited.
• Caveat: Reliability speculative—field tests pending.

Ferric-Ales: Iron-Air Drones with Resonant Charging

• Concept: Cargo drones with iron-air batteries, recharging mid-flight via Tesla’s resonant fields—all U.S. materials, no REEs.
• Grounding: Form 2024 iron-air (20 Wh/kg); WiTricity 2024 (1 kW over 5 meters); drone range 100 miles (2024)—domestic aluminum frames.
• Details: 5m drones: 50 kg cargo, 1,500-mile range by 2050—30 Wh/kg + 10 Wh/kg wireless, 20,000 units.
• Breakthroughs: Density (20 to 30 Wh/kg by 2035); recharge range (5 meters to 5 km by 2042); stability (swarm AI by 2047)—untested.
• Caveat: Range assumed—prototypes critical.

Sodium-Weave Agri: Solar-Powered Farming

• Concept: Sodium-doped cotton fabric generates solar power for irrigation—U.S. cotton and salt, no REEs.
• Grounding: MIT 2024 CNT solar (15%, cotton variant plausible); PNNL 2024 sodium conductivity—domestic resources (15M bales cotton, USDA 2024).
• Details: 1-acre weaves: 50 kW/day by 2050—5M acres feed 50M—all Texas-made.
• Breakthroughs: Efficiency (10% to 20% by 2040); durability (5-year lifespan by 2045)—untested.
• Caveat: Output guessed—trials needed.

Alumic Filters: Waste Recycling

• Concept: Aluminum oxide filters recycle Ferric and Flexic waste—U.S. bauxite, no REEs.
• Grounding: Alumina filters (2024 water treatment)—2M tons bauxite viable.
• Details: 1m³ units: 10 tons waste/day by 2050—100,000 units, Arkansas-sourced.
• Breakthroughs: CNT capture (tons by 2040); sodium compatibility (by 2045)—lab-scale now.
• Caveat: Efficacy assumed—pilot required.

Ferric Oscillators: Efficiency Boost

• Concept: Tesla’s mechanical oscillators (US 514,169, 1898) vibrate Ferric Grid iron, boosting efficiency—no REEs.
• Grounding: Piezoelectric 2024 (10% gain)—U.S. iron fits.
• Details: 70 Wh/kg by 2050—200,000 units, Ohio-crafted.
• Breakthroughs: Scale (watts to MW by 2040); wear mitigation (by 2045)—untested.
• Caveat: Gain speculative—lab proof needed.

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Double-Check: REE-Free and Domestic

• No REEs: Confirmed—no neodymium, indium, or rare materials; all tech uses iron, carbon, sodium, silicon dioxide, aluminum—CNTs replace copper where needed.
• Domestic: USGS 2024—resources exceed demand: iron (70M tons), carbon (600M tons), sodium (5M tons), sand (50M tons), bauxite (2M tons)—all U.S.-sourced.
• Safety: Wireless power (<1 mW/cm²) and data (<1 W/m²)—current limits met; long-term effects unstudied—I can’t assess.

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Vision Timeline: 2025-2050

2025-2030: Foundations

• 2025: R&D begins—Ferric Grid (1 MW), Flexic phone, Lumenic hub (25 Gbps), Ferric-Ales (100 miles). $10B federal investment—abundant tech focus.
• 2026: Ferric Transmitters test—10-meter wireless power. Sodium-Weave Agri lab—5 kW/acre.
• 2027: Flexic weaves 1 kg/day. Lumenic Resonators—50 Gbps over 1 km.
• 2028: Ferric Grid at 10 GW—1,000 units. Alumic Filters pilot—1 ton/day.
• 2029: Ferric-Ales 500 miles—100 drones. Ferric Oscillators—30 Wh/kg lab proof.
• 2030: Wireless power 100 meters—50% efficiency. Flexic for 1M users.

2031-2040: Scaling

• 2031: Ferric Grid 50 GW—5,000 units. Lumenic Hubs 100 Gbps—10,000 hubs.
• 2032: Sodium-Weave Agri 10,000 acres—feeds 100,000. Flexic 10 tons/day.
• 2033: Ferric Transmitters 1 km—20% U.S. power wireless. Ferric-Ales 1,000 units.
• 2035: Ferric Grid 200 GW—Ferric Oscillators 50 Wh/kg. Lumenic Resonators 10 km.
• 2037: Flexic for 10M—CNT looms scale. Alumic Filters 10,000 units—50% waste recycled.
• 2040: Wireless power 2 km—40% power (480 GW). Sodium-Weave 1M acres—10M fed.

2041-2050: Maturity

• 2042: Ferric-Ales 10,000—1,000-mile range. Lumenic Hubs 200 Gbps—1M hubs.
• 2045: Ferric Transmitters 5 km—50% power (600 GW). Flexic for 30M—atmospheric 1W/m².
• 2047: Ferric Oscillators 70 Wh/kg—full boost. Ferric-Ales 1,500 miles—20,000 units.
• 2048: Sodium-Weave 5M acres—50M fed. Alumic Filters 100,000 units—90% recycled.
• 2050: Lumenic Resonators 20 km—2M hubs, national data. Flexic for 50M—2W/m² atmospheric.

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2050 Vision (Cautious Outlook)

By 2050, if iterative breakthroughs succeed, Ferric Grid with Ferric Transmitters powers 50% of U.S. wirelessly (600 GW)—iron-sodium reactors, Tesla-inspired, cable-free. Flexic Fabrics (50M users) weave circuits and power (50W/m² solar, 2W/m² atmospheric)—CNTs from coal. Lumenic Hubs with Resonators send 200 Gbps over 20 km—sodium-glass airwaves. Ferric-Ales fly 1,500 miles, resonantly charged—20,000 drones. Sodium-Weave Agri feeds 50M—5M acres. Alumic Filters recycle 90% waste—100,000 units. Ferric Oscillators hit 70 Wh/kg—all domestic, REE-free. Safety, scale, and adoption remain untested—relentless engineering drives it, but human proof decides.