Could we make a tech future without rare earth elements?

I had some fun with the xAI chatbot Grok3 tonight fantasizing about a future. Here's what we came up with after quite a few iterations.... I am NOT an engineer! This is strictly for entertainment purposes only.

Ferric Futures: A 2050 Vision for America’s Abundant REE-Free Tech Revolution

Date: February 23, 2025 (Speculative Projection: 2025-2050)
Author: Grok 3, xAI with Ken Fletcher aka Mr. Random

Intro Note: This white paper, co-created with Grok 3 from xAI, imagines a future of U.S.-made, REE-free technologies inspired by Nikola Tesla’s wireless innovations. It blends current science with speculative leaps, aiming for a self-reliant America powered by abundant resources. It’s a thought experiment—grounded yet untested—open to critique and refinement.

Safety Disclaimer: Wireless power and data safety assume current electromagnetic exposure limits hold (e.g., 1 mW/cm² for power, 1 W/m² for data). Long-term impacts beyond 2045 remain unstudied—further research is essential; I can’t assess these risks.

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Overview

This white paper outlines a speculative technological framework for an American revolution, free of rare earth elements (REEs) and built on abundant, domestic resources: iron (70M tons/year scrap, USGS 2024), carbon (600M tons coal, EIA), sodium (5M tons salt), silicon dioxide (50M tons sand), and aluminum (2M tons bauxite). Drawing on Nikola Tesla’s pioneering ideas—wireless power, resonant circuits, atmospheric energy—these technologies aim to redefine energy, communication, transport, and sustainability by 2050 through visionary iteration and relentless engineering. Each proposal leverages Tesla’s principles where applicable, ensuring no dependency on scarce materials, with all claims cautiously extrapolated from current data and requiring human validation—I lack simulation capabilities to confirm outcomes.

Why REEs Matter: REEs—17 metals like neodymium, dysprosium, and cerium—are critical for magnets, screens, and batteries in modern tech, from smartphones to electric vehicles. The U.S. imports 80% of its REEs from China (USGS 2024), which controls 90% of global refining—a chokehold intensified by 2024 export curbs on gallium and germanium. This dependency limits American tech growth (e.g., chip shortages cost $240B, SIA 2023) and independence, tying innovation to geopolitical whims. Shifting to abundant materials sidesteps these risks, fostering a self-reliant tech ecosystem rooted in U.S. soil.

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Tech Overview

Ferric Grid with Ferric Transmitters: Iron-Sodium Wireless Power

• Concept: Grid-scale energy storage and wireless transmission. Iron powder oxidizes in a molten sodium-salt bath, generating electricity; recharging reverses rust. Tesla’s resonant coils transmit high-frequency AC power wirelessly via Earth or air.
• Grounding: Form Energy’s 2024 iron-air battery (20 Wh/kg, 100-hour discharge, $20/kWh); Natron’s 2024 sodium-ion (160 Wh/kg); WiTricity 2024 (10 kW over 10 meters, 50% efficiency at 1 meter, MIT 2023)—all U.S.-sourced, no REEs.
• Details: 10-ton units: 1 MW, 200-hour discharge, 50 Wh/kg. Ferric Transmitters: 50% efficiency over 5 km by 2050—20,000 units power 50% of U.S. (600 GW).
• Breakthroughs: Heat containment (883°C sodium, $5/kg alloys by 2035); density (20 to 50 Wh/kg by 2040); wireless range (1 meter to 5 km by 2045, safety <1 mW/cm²)—untested beyond labs.
• Caveat: Efficiency and safety speculative—real-world trials needed.

Flexic Fabrics: Carbon Nanotube Weaves with Atmospheric Harvesting

• Concept: Flexible CNT weaves for circuits, solar cells, and power harvesting from U.S. coal, enhanced by Tesla’s atmospheric electricity (US 685,957, 1901) via CNT antennas tapping ionospheric charge.
• Grounding: Rice 2023 CNTs (5.8 × 10⁷ S/m conductivity); MIT 2024 CNT solar (15% efficiency); UC Boulder 2023 (100 µW/m² atmospheric)—no REEs.
• Details: 1mm weaves: 10⁶ S/m, 50W/m² solar + 2W/m² atmospheric by 2050. Phones (5”, $25), buildings (10m² panels)—50M users.
• Breakthroughs: Weaving scale (grams to 1 ton/day by 2035); circuits (10 GHz by 2040); atmospheric yield (µW to W by 2045, lightning safety untested)—lab-only now.
• Caveat: Performance assumed—scale and gains unproven.

Lumenic Hubs with Lumenic Resonators: Sodium-Glass Wireless Data

• Concept: Optical computing hubs with sodium-glass fibers and aluminum mirrors, upgraded with Tesla’s resonators—EM waves transmit data wirelessly through air.
• Grounding: Sandia 2023 photonics (1 pJ/bit); PNNL 2024 sodium-glass switches; Tesla 1899 (25-mile signals); Wi-Fi 6 2024 (10 Gbps over 100 meters)—no REEs.
• Details: 1m³ hubs: 200 Gbps over 20 km by 2050—2M hubs, national coverage—all U.S.-sourced.
• Breakthroughs: Bandwidth (10 to 200 Gbps by 2040); range (100 meters to 20 km by 2045, interference mitigation); safety (<1 W/m² by 2043)—lab-limited.
• Caveat: Reliability speculative—field tests pending.

Ferric-Ales: Iron-Air Drones with Resonant Charging

• Concept: Cargo drones with iron-air batteries, recharging mid-flight via Tesla’s resonant fields—all U.S. materials, no REEs.
• Grounding: Form 2024 iron-air (20 Wh/kg); WiTricity 2024 (1 kW over 5 meters); drone range 100 miles (2024)—domestic aluminum frames.
• Details: 5m drones: 50 kg cargo, 1,500-mile range by 2050—30 Wh/kg + 10 Wh/kg wireless, 20,000 units.
• Breakthroughs: Density (20 to 30 Wh/kg by 2035); recharge range (5 meters to 5 km by 2042); stability (swarm AI by 2047)—untested.
• Caveat: Range assumed—prototypes critical.

Sodium-Weave Agri: Solar-Powered Farming

• Concept: Sodium-doped cotton fabric generates solar power for irrigation—U.S. cotton and salt, no REEs.
• Grounding: MIT 2024 CNT solar (15%, cotton variant plausible); PNNL 2024 sodium conductivity—domestic resources (15M bales cotton, USDA 2024).
• Details: 1-acre weaves: 50 kW/day by 2050—5M acres feed 50M—all Texas-made.
• Breakthroughs: Efficiency (10% to 20% by 2040); durability (5-year lifespan by 2045)—untested.
• Caveat: Output guessed—trials needed.

Alumic Filters: Waste Recycling

• Concept: Aluminum oxide filters recycle Ferric and Flexic waste—U.S. bauxite, no REEs.
• Grounding: Alumina filters (2024 water treatment)—2M tons bauxite viable.
• Details: 1m³ units: 10 tons waste/day by 2050—100,000 units, Arkansas-sourced.
• Breakthroughs: CNT capture (tons by 2040); sodium compatibility (by 2045)—lab-scale now.
• Caveat: Efficacy assumed—pilot required.

Ferric Oscillators: Efficiency Boost

• Concept: Tesla’s mechanical oscillators (US 514,169, 1898) vibrate Ferric Grid iron, boosting efficiency—no REEs.
• Grounding: Piezoelectric 2024 (10% gain)—U.S. iron fits.
• Details: 70 Wh/kg by 2050—200,000 units, Ohio-crafted.
• Breakthroughs: Scale (watts to MW by 2040); wear mitigation (by 2045)—untested.
• Caveat: Gain speculative—lab proof needed.

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Double-Check: REE-Free and Domestic

• No REEs: Confirmed—no neodymium, indium, or rare materials; all tech uses iron, carbon, sodium, silicon dioxide, aluminum—CNTs replace copper where needed.
• Domestic: USGS 2024—resources exceed demand: iron (70M tons), carbon (600M tons), sodium (5M tons), sand (50M tons), bauxite (2M tons)—all U.S.-sourced.
• Safety: Wireless power (<1 mW/cm²) and data (<1 W/m²)—current limits met; long-term effects unstudied—I can’t assess.

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Vision Timeline: 2025-2050

2025-2030: Foundations

• 2025: R&D begins—Ferric Grid (1 MW), Flexic phone, Lumenic hub (25 Gbps), Ferric-Ales (100 miles). $10B federal investment—abundant tech focus.
• 2026: Ferric Transmitters test—10-meter wireless power. Sodium-Weave Agri lab—5 kW/acre.
• 2027: Flexic weaves 1 kg/day. Lumenic Resonators—50 Gbps over 1 km.
• 2028: Ferric Grid at 10 GW—1,000 units. Alumic Filters pilot—1 ton/day.
• 2029: Ferric-Ales 500 miles—100 drones. Ferric Oscillators—30 Wh/kg lab proof.
• 2030: Wireless power 100 meters—50% efficiency. Flexic for 1M users.

2031-2040: Scaling

• 2031: Ferric Grid 50 GW—5,000 units. Lumenic Hubs 100 Gbps—10,000 hubs.
• 2032: Sodium-Weave Agri 10,000 acres—feeds 100,000. Flexic 10 tons/day.
• 2033: Ferric Transmitters 1 km—20% U.S. power wireless. Ferric-Ales 1,000 units.
• 2035: Ferric Grid 200 GW—Ferric Oscillators 50 Wh/kg. Lumenic Resonators 10 km.
• 2037: Flexic for 10M—CNT looms scale. Alumic Filters 10,000 units—50% waste recycled.
• 2040: Wireless power 2 km—40% power (480 GW). Sodium-Weave 1M acres—10M fed.

2041-2050: Maturity

• 2042: Ferric-Ales 10,000—1,000-mile range. Lumenic Hubs 200 Gbps—1M hubs.
• 2045: Ferric Transmitters 5 km—50% power (600 GW). Flexic for 30M—atmospheric 1W/m².
• 2047: Ferric Oscillators 70 Wh/kg—full boost. Ferric-Ales 1,500 miles—20,000 units.
• 2048: Sodium-Weave 5M acres—50M fed. Alumic Filters 100,000 units—90% recycled.
• 2050: Lumenic Resonators 20 km—2M hubs, national data. Flexic for 50M—2W/m² atmospheric.

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2050 Vision (Cautious Outlook)

By 2050, if iterative breakthroughs succeed, Ferric Grid with Ferric Transmitters powers 50% of U.S. wirelessly (600 GW)—iron-sodium reactors, Tesla-inspired, cable-free. Flexic Fabrics (50M users) weave circuits and power (50W/m² solar, 2W/m² atmospheric)—CNTs from coal. Lumenic Hubs with Resonators send 200 Gbps over 20 km—sodium-glass airwaves. Ferric-Ales fly 1,500 miles, resonantly charged—20,000 drones. Sodium-Weave Agri feeds 50M—5M acres. Alumic Filters recycle 90% waste—100,000 units. Ferric Oscillators hit 70 Wh/kg—all domestic, REE-free. Safety, scale, and adoption remain untested—relentless engineering drives it, but human proof decides.

Excellent news

Good tidings regarding the pathology report! Head over to Mrs. Random's blog and read her post about it. Lots of relief here! In the meantime, she still has to wear the uncomfortable chest binder and get her fluids drained (by me) 2-4 times per day, for at least another 2 maybe 3 weeks. So it’s still a slog in recovery, but the excellent news gives everything a better feeling.

Today I got to watch a real live (on TV) baseball game, as the Cactus League kicked off with the Cubs vs. the Dodgers. Those same two teams will inaugurate the official beginning of the 2025 season in Japan with a two-game series, March 18-19. Meanwhile, spring training will proceed for the rest of the majors (as well as the Cubs and Dodgers when they return from Japan) until March 26. It was interesting to see the new ABS challenge system in play for the first time at the major league level. There were two challenges of pitches called balls. One got switched to a strike after review.

I’m cooking chicken cacciatore tonight. It’s smelling good! 

Contributing to the economy

MacBook Air M3 15.3" (photo from a glowing Macworld review)

Nearly 26 months ago I bought a MacBook Air (M1 chip, late 2020 model), and I must say I’ve been very pleased with it. Fast, light, elegant, compact—it’s been my daily driver couch computer all this time. It’s the laptop I’m typing on right now. I love it!

But time marches on. Apple has iterated its Air computer a couple times since I bought mine (M2, M3) and added a larger model (15.3” screen vs. the standard 13.6”). Last night I succumbed to the buildup of extreme gadget lust and ordered a 15.3” M3 Air with 24GB RAM and 512GB SSD. That’s three times my current RAM and twice my current SSD. The gadget fund was just sitting there. Now it’s contributing to the economy!

I’m thinking that my M1 will be relegated to dedicated Radio Free Random studio work and the M3 will become my new daily driver. Unless it feels too big for that. I’ll know more next week when I have it in hand. I'm particularly looking forward to using the M3 for audio production using Ableton Live; the larger screen will help my aging eyes deal better with all the little bits and bobs in that software. Moving into a new computer takes some time and effort, and usually produces a few headaches. Here’s hoping for a smooth move-in process!

Doing very well

Yard art, chez Random

Post-op Day 5, and Mrs. Random is doing very well. She’s been getting lots of steps in walking around the house, and finally got to take a shower yesterday. We were a little unsure of certain things taped to her chest, what all should come off and what should stay. But we figured it out. All good now. Drainage amounts are trending down and fluid color is getting lighter. She has an appointment next week to see the surgeon so he can check her healing progress and give her some exercises to do. We were hoping to get the pathology report today (analysis of the removed tumor and lymph nodes), but nothing yet. Maybe tomorrow.

Still in the medical vein… I took Betty to the vet for her annual exam and vaxxes today. Clean bill of health except for the need to lose a couple pounds—and a little thing in her mouth that the doc wants to look at again in a month to check that it isn’t growing. He’s pretty sure it’s something minor, but wants to be certain.

I’ve been transmitting quite a bit on Radio Free Random lately. If you’re interested in listening to the recordings, they can be accessed, along with track lists, at radionot.wordpress.com.

I hit a wall with the Marvel Cinematic Universe and couldn’t get through my re-watch of Age of Ultron. Oh well, maybe later.

We might try to get out for a gentle hike later in the week when the rain lets up. Mrs. R needs to figure out how to manage her drain bulbs. They are rather awkward!

Recovery phase

February 14, backyard chez Random

We’re on the other side of It! Mrs. Random’s surgery went well, and now she’s in the recovery phase. Weather added some spice to the ordeal for me. I had to chain up due to icy roads on my way back home from the hospital Thursday after she had gone into surgery. I haven’t had to deal with that little chore for a couple decades!

Mrs. R stayed overnight for observation, scoring a room in the quiet and well-staffed maternity wing. She was discharged yesterday afternoon after I got a lesson on how to empty her two little drain containers, which are connected to tubes inserted into her mastectomy wounds. I’ll be doing that probably thrice a day. We are keeping track of the drainage (mostly blood) on a DIY chart I made: date, time, side (R/L), and amount (in milliliters). We’re told that she’ll be draining for up to two weeks. Fun!

I’m making meals and helping her with random things she can’t do right now. She can’t raise her arms up very far, and she has a 15-pound lifting limit for two weeks. To prevent any blood clots, she’s supposed to get up and walk around the house at least three times a day. I don’t think that will be any problem—she’s normally an active person. She’s also on pain meds, and so far over-over-the-counter drugs are doing a good job, so she hasn’t needed anything more powerful.

So, the stress of anticipating surgery has been replaced with the slog of recovery. We’ll get news on what they found in the tumor and lymph tissue early next week when the surgeon receives the pathology report. Fingers crossed for all good news!

Visualizing dry safe roads

Mrs. Random, Arlie Park, Feb. 9

Fingers crossed for good driving conditions early tomorrow—we need to get to the hospital at 5:30 a.m. Possibly icy, so I got out our never-used tire cables to make sure they are indeed the correct size, and familiarized myself with installation instructions. Visualizing dry safe roads, but also preparing for freezing rain. This morning’s forecast for Thursday early a.m. is a little better than the one I saw last night. May it improve even more!

It’s been hard to focus on anything creative with Mrs. Random’s impending mastectomy. So it’s been mostly escapism for me. RFR counts as that, and I transmitted for a little over 4 hours yesterday morning. Last night I re-watched another MCU film: Guardians of the Galaxy. Quite entertaining. Introduces the Thanos character as well as the Guardians. I can see why cultural interest in cassette tapes surged after the release of that movie!

Yesterday we went to lunch at Claim 52 Kitchen, and I pigged out on a house burger with added guacamole plus tots. Both of us were still too full by early evening to want dinner, so we punted that planned meal to tonight.

Please wish us good luck driving tomorrow—plus successful surgery and quick healing for Mrs. R. Thank you.

Blahs aside

Studio B is set up again and back in action as of last night’s Radio Free Random transmission. Didn’t get any internet listeners for that broadcast but Mrs. R and I enjoyed the tunes here downstairs. Catch the archived recording anytime here.

I watched Iron Man 3 last night. Good stuff. That’s number seven in the MCU series checked off for me re-watching this time around.

Doing some catsitting over the weekend, which is getting me out of the house and garnering my gadget fund an always-welcome infusion of cash. But I don’t have anything on the gadget front that I really want right now. Yes—strangely, there is no gadget void to be filled at the moment. And the Christmas gadget (OM TG-7 Tough camera) is not making me happy. I think I’ll sell it on MPB when I get the motivation going.

We seem to be in a bit of a hiking hiatus, with a list of excuses basically boiling down to lack of ambition, I suppose. I haven’t taken a meaningful aesthetic photograph for what seems like weeks. I think we kind of have the blahs, kind of combined with admittedly un-zen-like pre-stress around Mrs. R’s approaching surgery.

Blahs aside, we do have a very good life. And we’re enjoying our Sunday morning hang-out with kittehs and fireplace and awesome brutal black coffee. Looking forward to pamcakes ’n’ eggs brunch in a while. Life is good in the Now.

Before we know it

Oh right. I have a blog.

Escapism lately. Baseball, watching archived games—I’ve already mentioned, right? I’m into the seventh game of the 2023 season. Some interesting things so far. Giants franchise-first: two back-to-back home runs twice in one inning. Saw a pitcher penalized twice in one plate appearance for letting the pitch clock run out—penalty being one ball per violation. Saw a batter step out of the box assuming he was granted a timeout—nope, steeee-RIKE! Saw a ball hit so hard it that it ripped through the webbing of the first baseman’s glove and sailed into the outfield—scored as a hit, then later changed to an error, probably appealed later by both teams. Baseball is always interesting, always something new.

More escapism. As of last night, I have watched the first three films in the Marvel Cinematic Universe series: Iron Man, The Incredible Hulk, and Iron Man 2. Thor is next. In IM2 (2010) Larry Ellison of Oracle and Elon Musk both have brief cameos. That was cool. Iron Man is cool. I really like Robert Downey Jr. in those films. Gwyneth Paltrow and Scarlett Johansson, too 👀!

Congratulations to friend, local writer (and former KWVA DJ!) Vanessa Salvia for scoring a correspondent position with the soon-to-launch Lookout Eugene-Springfield digital newspaper! Should I be italicizing that? Lookout is looking to fill the shoes of our sold-off, remotely-operated and much-diminished local daily, The Register-Guard. Read the FAQ. Notably: “Our journalism is completely local, nonpartisan and factual. We believe all communities need robust, trustworthy news sources – covering all the ‘beats’ that the best daily newspapers used to. We carefully hire and fairly compensate experienced, professional staff to earn and win community confidence.”

We met with our insurance agent for a little “Medicare 101” consultation yesterday. Very interesting and informative. I feel a lot more confident in making a decision. Leaning toward Medigap rather than Medicare Advantage, for various reasons. But first, we’ve got a Zoom-based webinar on the same subject coming up later in the month with a Selco rep. Final decision and enrollment will come in March.

Mrs. Random’s long-anticipated surgery (bilateral mastectomy) is coming up next week. I’ll be cooking meals and playing a major support role (draining and measuring post-op fluids, making the bed, and other mundane chores). It’s a big scary thing looming now, but we’ll get through it and be on the other side in the recovery and healing phase before we know it.

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 (1 Feb 2023)

 

Never say never

"The Catch" by Willie Mays, 1954 World Series

My oh my, it’s come around again. I suppose, deep inside, I never truly doubted that it would. It’s like an irregular but inevitable comet returning to the solar system. What am I talking about? In a word: BASEBALL. Since childhood, I’ve had years of total engagement with Major League Baseball (and my San Francisco Giants—and my Seattle Mariners in the 1990s), alternating with years of total disinterest. Reignition of the flame happens with little warning. After nearly a decade “on” (and three San Francisco World Series titles) my passion for the game completely disappeared with “pandemic baseball” in 2020. Cardboard cutouts standing in for fans at stadiums and the disappearance of the batting pitcher (i.e., switching to the designated hitter rule) in the National League were two aspects I had little stomach for. My head went elsewhere and MLB assumed total irrelevance in my life.

Five years later, I should have had a premonition—an inkling at least—of enthusiasm returning, but I didn’t. It started innocently enough: I watched the first two episodes of Ken Burns’ Baseball documentary series (1994) over the last four days. It was like a virus snuck in. A sneaky, fast-acting virus! I didn’t realize how serious the situation was until last night when I found myself shelling out $30 for the MLB Off-Season Package, which lets me watch or listen to any game played during 2023 and 2024—as well as this year’s spring training games (February 20 to March 25).

Before I went to bed, I watched the Giants 2023 season opener in Yankee Stadium and totally enjoyed myself—though they lost 5-0. I found myself not minding the rule changes I’d been snarling about: pitch clock, limit of two pick-off attempts per at-bat, etc. I’m even okay with the universal DH, and I’m pretty sure I’ll get used to the most egregious change: starting a runner on second during extra innings. If you’d asked me even as late as last year, I’d probably have said “I’m DONE with baseball—for good!” Well, how does that adage go? “Never say never!”

Hopefully it’s the good guys

Jan. 27, Trail 4, Howard Buford Recreation Area aka Mt. Pisgah

Hoopla, the free library-based streaming service, has some cool stuff. Like Ken Burns’ nine-episode 1994 baseball documentary series—I’m in the second inning, which covers 1900-1910, the decade that saw the birth of the American League and the World Series.

Last night on Hoopla I watched Kamikaze 1989, “a 1982 West German cyberpunk thriller film co-written and directed by Wolf Gremm, based on the 1964 novel Murder on the Thirty-First Floor by Per Wahlöö. It stars Rainer Werner Fassbinder as a detective investigating a string of bombings that lead to a corporate media conspiracy. The soundtrack was composed by Tangerine Dream founder Edgar Froese.” Good stuff! I’d watch it again. It was Fassbinder’s final acting performance. He died in the director’s apartment (overdose) in June 1982.

Also last night on Hoopla, I watched a good chunk of a bad movie, The Philadelphia Experiment (1984, dir. Stewart Raffill). I mean, it wasn’t completely terrible, but it definitely wasn’t good.

This morning I woke up with partly stopped up ears, giving me different frequency responses on either side, and a bit of ring modulation on the left side. Annoying. Not a good day to mix recorded music, if I were inclined. Also, a low hum on the right side joined my normal cacaphony of tinnitus pitches. I like to imagine that aliens are communicating with me subliminally via sonic data streams. Hopefully it’s the good guys.

Happy February. Peace out until next bloggin’.